- Article
Beyond National Averages: Spatial and Temporal Patterns in Type 2 Diabetes Dynamics in Romania—A 10-Year Time Series Study
- Cristina Gena Dascalu,
- Diana Tatarciuc and
- Magda Ecaterina Antohe
Background/Objectives: This study analyzes the temporal and spatial evolution of type 2 diabetes prevalence in Romanian counties over a 10-year period (2012–2021), based on the time series autocorrelation and cross-correlation coefficients. Methods: The autocorrelation coefficients were calculated within each county’s data series, in order to identify the internal temporal dependencies, and the cross-correlation coefficients were calculated on administrative regions, in order to identify epidemiological patterns. Results: The type 2 diabetes prevalence rates in most counties follow autoregressive series, with significant positive correlations at lag 1, indicating cyclical fluctuations. Cross-correlation analysis revealed 3 regional patterns: North-East and West regions showed highly synchronized dynamics with cross-correlations exceeding 0.9, South-East and South regions showed mixed synchronization, with temporal lags of 1–2 years between counties, while the other regions (Center, South-West and North-West) revealed a synchronized core and an isolated county, with atypical dynamics (e.g., Cluj, Alba, Mehedinți, Ialomița). Conclusions: These findings highlight the utility of time series analysis in understanding the specificity of such data and their practical applicability in customizing the required public health interventions.
4 July 2026


